WS #6266

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its escalating economic impact, now with multiple new developments. Oil prices hit a four-year high above $126/bbl after President Trump signaled the blockade of Iranian ports could last months and is being briefed on new military strike options (corroborated by Axios, AFP, GDELT). Iran's Revolutionary Guards threaten 'long and painful strikes' in response, and Iran's Mousavi threatens U.S. naval vessels. The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC+ is expected to reduce the cartel's market share, while OPEC+ delegates expect another symbolic supply hike without the UAE. Ukraine struck a major Russian refinery and oil-pumping station in Perm, further crippling Moscow's crude-processing capability. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% (8-1 vote), with Bailey warning that prolonged energy price spikes could lead to higher rates. Eurozone Q1 GDP grew only 0.1% QoQ, while eurozone inflation jumped to 3.0% in April. The yen strengthened sharply (USD/JPY down 3% to 155.5) after BoE comments. In tech earnings, Meta (META) is under pressure: JPMorgan downgraded to Hold, citing negative FCF and decelerating revenue growth; Meta also kicked off a bond offering after boosting spending outlook. Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) reported strong Q1 results with bullish signals (AWS damage in Bahrain/UAE noted but not market-moving yet). Mastercard (MA) beat estimates but showed slowing volumes. Integer Holdings (ITGR) initiated a strategic review and lowered guidance. SoftBank is reportedly creating a robotics company eyeing a $100B IPO. The Iran war narrative is ESCALATING with new military planning and threats, while the counter-signal of a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough remains absent. Carry-forward: the Trump briefing on Iran strike plans remains high significance.