WS #6268

The dominant signal in this window is the UAE's departure from OPEC, confirmed by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, Oilprice.com, Bloomberg via Bluesky). This is a major geopolitical shock that could reshape global oil supply dynamics. The UAE has added ~1 million bpd of capacity since 2019, and its exit removes a key moderate voice within OPEC, potentially leading to higher output and lower prices in the medium term, but near-term uncertainty is bullish for oil. Separately, Japan intervened in FX markets to support the yen, pushing it from 160 to 155 briefly, which may impact USD/JPY and Japanese equities. On the earnings front, Caterpillar (CAT) beat estimates with $5.54 EPS vs $4.64 est, and shares hit a 52-week high, though tariffs are pressuring margins. Alphabet (GOOGL) popped on strong Q1 results and record operating margin of 36%, while Meta (META) tanked on higher capex and lower user numbers, creating a notable divergence within MAG7. The US Q1 GDP miss (2.0% vs 2.3% est) and weaker Chicago PMI (49.2 vs 54.8) suggest economic softening, but the AI-driven investment narrative remains intact. The Iran war narrative continues with Israel receiving 6,500 tons of military equipment and Iran warning of 'long and painful strikes', but no new escalation is reported. The Fed's hawkish hold and Powell's warning on independence are carry-forward items. Overall, the UAE OPEC exit is the highest-significance new development, with oil prices already down ~2-3% on the news.