WS #6285

The dominant market narrative is the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, but the most actionable signals in this window are the divergent MAG7 earnings reactions and the US DHS shutdown resolution. Alphabet (GOOGL) surged ~7-10% on strong cloud revenue growth and AI monetization, while Meta (META) fell ~9% on higher capex guidance and a first-ever quarterly user decline. Microsoft (MSFT) continued its pattern of post-earnings declines, falling ~5%. The US House voted to end the 76-day DHS shutdown, removing a key domestic uncertainty. ECB held rates steady at 2% but flagged inflation risks from Middle East energy prices. Oil supply disruption remains severe with Vortexa reporting 9M bpd lost from Hormuz blockade, though Brent pulled back from $126 highs. Trump announced removal of tariffs on Scottish whiskey, a minor positive for trade sentiment. The AI capex boom continues with hyperscaler spending estimates now exceeding $1 trillion by 2027, supporting infrastructure plays. Gold fell for a third day as inflation fears rose. The US Q1 GDP came in at 2% annualized, above expectations, driven by business investment in AI. Overall, the market is rotating: AI winners (GOOGL, AMZN) are rewarded while high-capex stories (META, MSFT) are punished, and the oil shock is being partially shrugged off by equities.