WS #6299
The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran war and its impact on oil prices and inflation, with no de-escalation signals. Oil prices are volatile, with WTI crude futures at $105.41/bbl after hitting an intraday high of $110.93/bbl, and US gas prices reaching $4.30/gallon. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but warned of potential rate hikes to 5.5% if oil prices stay high. Apple's strong earnings beat and raised guidance (Q3 revenue growth 14-17% vs 9.5% est.) is a key positive signal, with AAPL up 3.6% after hours. The DHS shutdown ended after 76 days, removing a tail risk. Stryker's rare double earnings miss is a negative signal for SYK. The VEEV addition to the S&P 500 is a positive for that stock. The Fed leadership transition (Trump indifferent on Powell, wants Warsh) adds uncertainty. The UAE ban on citizens traveling to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq is an escalation signal. The Bank of England's warning on inflation from Iran war is a macro concern. The carry-forward from previous awareness: US-Iran tensions with oil above $110/bbl remain, but Apple's earnings provide a positive counterweight. The narrative arc for the Iran war is STABLE (no new de-escalation), while the tech earnings narrative is BULLISH (Apple beat).
Key developments
- Apple beats Q2 estimates, guides Q3 revenue growth 14-17% vs 9.5% est., stock up 3.6% after hours
- Oil holds weekly gain as Trump says Iran blockade is working; US gas prices hit $4.30/gallon
- Congress passes bill to end 76-day DHS shutdown, funding TSA, Coast Guard, FEMA through September
- Stryker reports rare double earnings miss, maintains 2026 guidance
- Bank of England holds rates at 3.75%, warns Iran war could double inflation and force rate hikes to 5.5%
- Veeva Systems to replace Coterra Energy in S&P 500, effective May 7
- Trump says indifferent on Powell staying, wants Kevin Warsh as Fed chair
- UAE bans citizens from traveling to Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, orders nationals to return home