WS #6306

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing to drive oil prices and inflation. Iran warns of 'painful strikes' on US forces, and Trump suggests the blockade could last months, pushing Brent crude to $126 intraday before settling at $110.40. The US administration claims the War Powers Resolution clock has reset due to the ceasefire, potentially allowing hostilities to continue without congressional approval. The DHS shutdown ended after 76 days, removing a domestic political risk. Apple reported a record Q2 with $111.2B revenue and $2.01 EPS, announced a $100B buyback, and guided June quarter revenue growth of 14-17%, sending stock up 4% after-hours. However, Apple warned of a looming chip shortage and supply constraints for Mac mini and Mac Studio that could persist for months. Huawei's AI chip sales surge as NVIDIA stalls in China, with Huawei expecting $12B in AI chip revenue this year. The UAE formally left OPEC on May 1, a move that could reshape global oil supply dynamics long-term but has limited short-term impact due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. South Korea's April exports surged 48% YoY, beating expectations and signaling strong global demand. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% but signaled potential hikes if oil prices stay elevated. Fertilizer prices have soared 80% since the war began, threatening global food production. The narrative is ESCALATING on Iran, with no de-escalation signals in this window.