WS #6311

The dominant theme remains the escalating Iran conflict and its macroeconomic spillovers, with multiple cross-corroborated signals pointing to a prolonged supply shock. The US administration has declared the ceasefire 'terminated' for War Powers purposes, while Iran threatens 'long and painful strikes' and maintains the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Oil prices remain elevated (Brent ~$111-117/bbl), with the Pentagon admitting $25bn in war costs (sources suggest $40-50bn). This is driving US gas prices to $4.30/gal national average, California at $6/gal, and a 44% increase since the war began. Commercial LPG prices in India were hiked by Rs 993. The UAE's exit from OPEC+ adds another layer of supply uncertainty. Counter-signals include the US ending combat operations (though the ceasefire is fragile), Japan's yen intervention, and the Jones Act waiver easing some domestic crude movements. Apple's blowout earnings (revenue +17%, $111.18B, EPS $2.01 vs $1.95 est.) and strong Q3 guidance (+14-17% vs 9.5% est.) provide a positive tech anchor, with shares up ~3% after-hours. The Senate unanimously banned members from prediction markets. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING on the Iran war front, while tech earnings provide a STABLE positive counterweight. New in this window: The Trump administration argues the Iran war is 'terminated' for War Powers purposes, a legal maneuver to avoid congressional approval. CENTCOM commander briefed Trump on military plans. Iran warns of 'long, painful strikes' if US attacks resume. Oil prices surged to $126/bbl intraday before settling back. ASEAN ministers issued a formal warning that the Hormuz closure threatens regional growth. Japan intervened in FX markets as USD/JPY breached 160. The FDA approved Axsome's Auvelity for Alzheimer's agitation, sending AXSM +12.9% to new highs. Apple reported record March quarter with iPhone revenue +22% and guided Q3 revenue growth of 14-17%, well above consensus. Meta warned of more layoffs due to AI spending. SanDisk reported massive beat ($5.95B revenue vs $4.73B est). Alphabet shares surged 10% on strong cloud/AI results. Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $490M. The national debt exceeded 100% of GDP for first time since 1946.