WS #6325

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war and its impact on oil prices, with a key development being Iran's submission of a formal response to US amendments via Pakistani intermediaries, reported by multiple sources including Bloomberg and Axios. This has pushed oil prices lower as it signals potential de-escalation. However, Trump vows to maintain the naval blockade, and the US war powers deadline is approaching, creating a mixed picture. The Pentagon signed AI deals with seven companies including Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon for classified work, a bullish signal for defense AI. Apple reported strong earnings with above-consensus Q3 guidance, but warned of Mac shortages and memory cost pressures. Meta's $25B bond deal saw strong demand despite equity selloff, indicating credit market confidence. Chevron and Exxon beat earnings estimates but shares are down premarket due to downstream weakness and hedging losses. The Fed's Kashkari and Hammack offered insight on their dissents, with Hammack stating uncertainty has increased. The UAE's exit from OPEC is now effective, potentially leading to increased supply. Ukraine strikes continue to cripple Russian oil infrastructure, costing $7 billion in revenue. The narrative arc is MIXED: the Iran peace proposal is a counter-signal to the bearish oil thesis, but the blockade continuation and Fed dissent keep risks elevated.