WS #6350

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-EU trade tensions, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on EU cars and trucks effective next week, citing EU non-compliance with the Turnberry trade deal. This is corroborated by multiple sources including NYT, Reuters, and auto industry associations (VDA, ACEA) reacting with alarm. The tariff is legally durable as it is exempt from the Supreme Court ruling that struck down other Trump tariffs. This will pressure European automakers (BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen) while benefiting US-based production (Tesla, Ford, GM). Separately, Spirit Airlines is shutting down after bailout talks failed, with reports of liquidation and fleet sale, impacting 14,000 jobs and passengers. Apple's stellar earnings continue to drive tech higher, with the stock reaching new highs and the Nasdaq up over 1%. The Iran war narrative remains active but with mixed signals: Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest proposal and was briefed on military options, while oil prices remain above $105/bbl and the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues. The Fed's Kashkari warned of potential rate hikes if Middle East price shocks persist, adding to hawkish sentiment. Trump Media is considering spinning out Truth Social and merging with TAE Technologies, a nuclear fusion venture, as per WSJ. The EU-Mercosur trade agreement provisionally entered into force today, which could benefit Latin American economies but faces opposition from EU farmers.