WS #6444

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating energy crisis and its second-order effects, with multiple corroborated sources confirming a new attack on a bulk carrier near the Strait of Hormuz, marking at least two dozen attacks since the war began. OPEC+ agreed to a modest 188,000 bpd output increase for June, but this remains largely symbolic as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The US has become the world's top oil exporter, but domestic inventories are drawing down rapidly, pushing US gasoline prices above $4.44/gallon nationally and over $6 in California. Spirit Airlines has ceased operations, becoming the first major casualty of the fuel price surge, with 17,000 jobs lost. Iran has submitted a 14-point proposal to end the war within 30 days, but Trump expressed skepticism, saying Iran 'has not suffered enough.' The Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to add upward pressure on oil, with Ukraine striking Russian oil tankers and the Primorsk terminal. The combination of supply disruptions, depleting US reserves, and hawkish Fed commentary creates a stagflationary risk that could crack the AI-led equity rally. Separately, Meta's stock is being 'clubbed like a baby seal' per Jim Cramer, down 8%+ on user miss and higher CapEx, while Apple reported a strong quarter with 22% EPS growth but faces supply constraints. The Fed's Kashkari warned that rate cuts are off the table and hikes are possible if the Strait closure persists, a hawkish pivot that counters the prevailing market narrative of AI-driven resilience.