WS #6507

The Iran-UAE conflict has escalated dramatically, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks against the UAE, striking the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone and causing a large fire. The US military reported sinking six Iranian boats after Iran fired on US and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US claims two merchant ships have transited under 'Project Freedom'. Oil prices surged past $115/barrel on Brent, with WTI above $105. This represents a major escalation from the previous ceasefire and directly threatens global oil supply chokepoints. Separately, Russia announced a unilateral three-day ceasefire in Ukraine for May 8-10, but this is unlikely to materially change the conflict dynamics. The ECB's Nagel signaled a potential rate hike in June if inflation doesn't improve, adding to macro uncertainty. Bitcoin broke above $80,000 amid progress on the CLARITY Act, boosting crypto stocks like Circle (+18%) and Coinbase (+7%). Amazon launched its logistics network for third-party use, pressuring FedEx and UPS. The Fed's Williams sees rates well-positioned amid Iran war uncertainty, while the Fed held rates steady with significant dissent. The Supreme Court temporarily restored access to the abortion pill mifepristone.