WS #6515

The 4-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has collapsed, with direct military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian drone/missile attacks on UAE oil infrastructure. The US military sank six Iranian boats and shot down missiles/drones while escorting vessels through the strait. Brent crude surged ~5% to over $114/barrel, and US gas prices hit $4.46/gallon (up 49% since late February). Goldman Sachs warns global oil buffers are shrinking fast, with commercial refined product inventories approaching critically low levels. The Dow Jones fell over 400 points on the escalation. Counter-signals: the US denied Iranian claims of hitting a US warship, which caused a partial intraday reversal in oil and equity moves. Separately, Amazon launched its Supply Chain Services (ASCS) to all businesses, directly competing with FedEx and UPS, sending Dow Transports into a bear market. Jefferies downgraded Meta and Microsoft targets, while Wedbush raised AMD's target to $400 ahead of earnings.