WS #6518

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in Iran-US tensions, with multiple sources reporting that Iran attacked a UAE oil port in Fujairah and struck ships near the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military engaged Iranian boats. This represents a significant escalation from the previous ceasefire collapse narrative. The IMF's Georgieva warned that if the war continues into 2027 with oil at $125/barrel, the outcome would be 'much worse,' and the IMF's adverse scenario is now in place. Separately, Palantir reported blockbuster Q1 earnings with 85% revenue growth and raised guidance, providing a strong counter-signal to the broader geopolitical risk-off sentiment. The SEC announced an investigation into alleged fraud in private credit, which could impact financial sector sentiment. Other notable earnings include Diamondback Energy beating estimates and raising production guidance, while Inspire Medical Systems lowered its full-year guidance sharply. The Ukraine ceasefire announcement by Zelenskyy is a potential de-escalation signal, but its impact is uncertain given the Iran situation.