WS #6550

The Strait of Hormuz conflict remains the dominant market narrative, with the situation ESCALATING. Iran struck the UAE with missiles and drones, hitting a refinery in Fujairah and wounding three, marking the first attack on Emirati soil since the April ceasefire. Ukrainian drones hit the Kirishi Oil Refinery in Leningrad Oblast, damaging three primary oil processing units, and struck an oil pumping station supplying the port of Primorsk. Goldman Sachs warns global oil inventories are crashing to an eight-year low. The US attempt to reopen the Strait of Hormuz tests the fragile ceasefire, with NPR reporting the effort. Brazil's central bank minutes show concern over second-round effects of the oil supply shock and further de-anchoring of inflation expectations. In corporate news, Coinbase announced a 14% workforce reduction (~700 jobs) with $50-60M in severance costs. PayPal beat Q1 estimates (EPS $1.34 vs $1.27, revenue $8.353B vs $8.046B) but margins eroded and Q2 guidance raised alarms. Shopify beat estimates (EPS $0.36 vs $0.31, revenue $3.170B vs $3.084B) with 34% revenue growth. Pfizer beat Q1 estimates (EPS $0.75 vs $0.72, revenue $14.451B vs $13.785B) and reaffirmed guidance. Rockwell Automation beat estimates and raised FY26 EPS guidance. DigitalOcean raised FY26 guidance significantly. BellRing Brands lowered FY26 sales guidance. EVgo reported record Q1 revenue but issued weak Q2 guidance. Ferrari reported strong Q1 with confirmed 2026 guidance. BioNTech reported a net loss but reaffirmed FY26 outlook and announced a $1B share repurchase program. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Iran conflict, with no de-escalation signals in this window.