WS #6558

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is ESCALATING. Iran's top advisor claims the Strait is closed and will only reopen at Tehran's discretion, while the US military reports sinking six Iranian small boats and intercepting missiles as part of 'Project Freedom' to reopen the waterway. This has driven oil prices up 57% since late February, with Brent at $114/bbl and European gas up 51%. Saudi Arabia posted its biggest fiscal deficit since 2018 due to the Hormuz closure, and a growing cluster of 363 ships is waiting off Dubai. The ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in effect despite an Iranian attack on the Emirati port of Fujairah. Separately, Ukraine struck the Kirishi oil refinery (400,000 bpd) near St. Petersburg, halting processing, and hit a military electronics plant in Chuvashia, killing two. Russia's oil export value hit a Ukraine-war high. In corporate news, Intel surged over 12% on reports that Apple is in preliminary talks with Intel and Samsung for main processor manufacturing, adding $55B to market cap. GameStop's unsolicited $55.5B bid for eBay faces skepticism; Michael Burry sold his entire GME stake, citing excessive leverage. Palantir reported strong Q1 with 85% revenue growth and 57% free cash flow margin, but shares slipped. AMD options are pricing a ~9% post-earnings move. The US ISM Services PMI came in at 53.6 (vs 53.7 est.), while New Home Sales for March beat at 682K (vs 652K est.).