WS #6604

The dominant narrative remains the Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis, but this window shows a significant de-escalation signal: US Secretary of State Rubio stated the offensive stage of the Iran war is over, and the US has shifted to protecting shipping. This is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera). However, the situation remains fragile with ongoing attacks: a drone strike on a UAE oil facility in Fujairah, a South Korean vessel hit, and Iran warning it will block US vessels. Oil prices spiked above $114 on the UAE attack but later steadied. Separately, AMD surged past $400 in after-hours trading following strong Q1 earnings, and Alphabet briefly surpassed Nvidia as the world's most valuable company. OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by 188,000 bpd starting June, which counters the oil supply disruption narrative. The Ukraine-Russia conflict saw competing ceasefire announcements and a Russian warning to evacuate Kyiv, but no material change. Overall, the Iran crisis is de-escalating from offensive operations to a protection/negotiation phase, but the risk of further flare-ups remains high.