WS #6625

The dominant narrative remains the Iran conflict and its energy crisis, but this window brings a significant de-escalation signal: multiple sources (Axios, Bloomberg, Polymarket) report the U.S. and Iran are nearing a draft MOU to end the war, with Iran expected to respond within 48 hours. This is corroborated by ADNOC exporting a second LNG shipment through Hormuz, oil prices dropping for a second session (Brent -1.7% to $107.98, WTI -1.8% to $100.44), and Polymarket trades on US-Iran diplomatic meetings and Strait of Hormuz normalization. This counters the prevailing bearish energy thesis. Meanwhile, the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire is effectively dead, with Russian forces targeting a kindergarten in Sumy with drones in violation of the truce, escalating that conflict. On the corporate front, Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported Q1 earnings that beat estimates significantly (EPS $1.04 vs $0.87, revenue $15.173B vs $11.130B), raising FY2026 sales guidance. Samsung hits $1 trillion valuation, and South Korean stocks surge. Alphabet (GOOGL) is up 2% on reports that Anthropic will spend ~$200B with Google over 5 years. Freshworks cuts 11% of workforce as CEO says over half of code is written by AI. Overall, the Iran de-escalation is the most market-moving signal, potentially relieving oil supply fears and boosting risk assets, while the Ukraine conflict escalates.