WS #6628

The dominant signal in this window is a flurry of Q1 earnings reports from major US companies, with several beats and guidance raises that could drive sector-specific moves. Disney (DIS) beat EPS estimates and guided to ~12% adjusted EPS growth for FY26, with streaming profitability improving and parks growth slowing. CVS Health (CVS) blew past estimates and raised FY26 guidance as its insurance business outperformed, signaling a turnaround. Kennametal (KMT) raised FY26 EPS guidance dramatically from $2.05-$2.45 to $3.75-$4.00, far above consensus. Restaurant Brands (QSR) beat same-store sales estimates on Burger King strength. Freshpet (FRPT) raised sales guidance. ITT (ITT) beat estimates and initiated FY26 outlook. Apollo Global Management (APO) reported record fee-related earnings and AUM surpassing $1 trillion. These beats are corroborated across multiple sources (SEC filings, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, Benzinga, Alpaca). On the macro side, reports of US-Iran nearing a deal to end the war are circulating, with NBC reporting oil prices plunging and markets surging on the news. This is corroborated by Benzinga and multiple Polymarket contracts showing increased probability of a deal. The Iran de-escalation narrative is escalating, with Pakistan's foreign minister also pushing for a permanent end. This counters the prevailing oil supply crisis thesis and could weigh on energy stocks while boosting broad markets. The Ukraine conflict remains stable with no new material developments. The AI infrastructure vs software decoupling theme continues but is not new. Overall, the earnings season is providing positive surprises, and the Iran deal narrative is a powerful counter-signal to geopolitical risk.