WS #6646

The dominant theme in this window is the US-Iran diplomatic situation, which is de-escalating after Trump announced 'Great Progress' toward a deal and paused Project Freedom. This drove a massive 12% drop in oil prices, with a suspicious $920M short placed 70 minutes before the Axios scoop. OPEC production fell to a 36-year low, but the deal prospect counters the oil supply crisis. Separately, Apollo CEO Marc Rowan warned of a 30-35% chance of an exogenous shock and is positioning defensively. Kraft Heinz CEO flagged potential hedging for higher costs in 2027 if inflation persists. European markets closed sharply higher (CAC +2.94%, DAX +2.24%). Ted Turner's death at 87 is notable but not market-moving. Earnings season remains strong per Deutsche Bank, with S&P tracking as one of the best in 20 years.