WS #6654

The dominant signal in this window is the rapid de-escalation of the US-Iran/Hormuz crisis, which is driving a sharp reversal in oil prices and a broad equity rally. Multiple sources (BBC, Alpaca, Polymarket, social media) confirm Trump has paused the Hormuz military operation, and reports of a potential 14-point deal are circulating. Oil is down ~7%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit records, led by AMD's 17% surge on strong data-center guidance. The macro narrative is shifting from 'war premium' to 'de-escalation rally', with energy stocks falling and consumer/tech stocks benefiting. However, counter-signals exist: Carlyle's Jeff Currie warns US oil storage could run dry by July 4, suggesting the underlying supply tightness remains. Additionally, Coinbase's 14% workforce cut and PayPal's analyst downgrade are company-specific negatives. The Iran deal narrative is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on Hormuz traffic normalization and peace deals, adding to its significance.