WS #6700

The dominant narrative remains the Iran-US conflict, with several new developments in this window. The US has proposed a new nuclear framework to Iran, demanding dismantlement of facilities and a moratorium on enrichment, which represents a potential diplomatic path but also a hardening of US demands. Separately, Russian drones struck an oil depot in Latvia, marking a significant escalation of the conflict into NATO territory, though the tank was empty and no fire occurred. This is corroborated by multiple sources. Shell reported Q1 profits of $6.92B, beating estimates, driven by the Iran war, and announced a $3B buyback, but also raised FY26 capex to $24-26B and cut share buybacks, sending mixed signals. The Nikkei 225 closed at a record high, driven by SoftBank and tech stocks, indicating a risk-on mood in Asia despite geopolitical tensions. US airlines spent $5B on fuel in March, a 56% surge, highlighting the energy crisis's impact on the sector. The Iran situation is ESCALATING with the new nuclear framework and the Latvia drone strike, while the market is pricing in continued high oil prices and inflation risks.