WS #6746

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict, with multiple independent sources reporting a naval confrontation, drone attacks on oil refineries near the Strait, and a US drone attack on an Iranian oil tanker. This follows reports of explosions in Qeshm, Siri, and Bandar Abbas, and an exchange of fire. The IEA head has called on Canada to move faster on energy amid the supply shock, and there are reports of $7 billion in oil trades made before Trump's Iran announcements, suggesting potential insider trading investigations. This geopolitical escalation is the highest-significance development, with direct implications for oil prices, energy stocks, and shipping. Separately, a heavy batch of earnings reports shows mostly beats, but the macro risk from the Iran conflict dominates. Key earnings beats include Monster Beverage, Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, Gen Digital, and Airbnb (which also warned of Middle East cancellations due to the war). Synaptics issued a weak Q4 guidance, while Gilead raised guidance. The Iran conflict escalation is the primary market-moving signal, with potential to spike oil prices and volatility.