WS #6823

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation of a 3-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, announced by Trump and corroborated by the Kyiv Independent and multiple sources. This de-escalation counters the prevailing oil shock narrative and could dampen energy price spikes, benefiting airlines and consumer stocks while pressuring energy names. Separately, the 'changing of the guard in AI' narrative is strongly reinforced: Intel, AMD, and Micron have surged double digits this week, with Intel up 17% on Friday following the Apple chip-making deal. This is a high-significance MAG7 carve-out contradicting any bearish tech narrative. Meanwhile, Iran-US tensions remain elevated with US strikes on Iranian tankers and Iran accusing the US of 'reckless military adventure', but the ceasefire is the freshest signal. The ECB's Nagel warned of inflation risks from the Iran war, signaling potential hawkish tilt. Cerebras Systems is expected to raise its IPO price range to $125-$135, indicating strong AI demand. Bitcoin is at $80,000 amid lingering Middle East tensions. The AI rally is broadening to smaller infrastructure names like Maxlinear, DigitalOcean, and Lumentum.