WS #6845

The dominant theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources (Pentagon footage, satellite imagery, live blogs) corroborating US strikes on Iranian oil tankers and a suspected oil slick near Kharg Island. This is partially offset by a counter-signal: Polymarket shows bets on a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expects a response from Iran on Friday, suggesting de-escalation potential. The tech/AI rally continues strongly: INTC +14%, AMD +11%, DELL +13%, SOXX +5.67%, driven by Apple-Intel chip talks and Anthropic's 80x Q1 revenue growth with a SpaceX compute deal. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs. Separately, Libya's largest oil refinery halts operations, adding to oil supply concerns. The Iran/oil risk theme is ESCALATING (strikes, oil slick, Libya halt) but diplomatic signals act as a counter. The tech/AI rally theme is STABLE and continuing. A new development: Iran has shifted from threats to operational control of the Strait of Hormuz with a formal permit system, which markets are still pricing under the old playbook.