WS #6852

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran military conflict, with multiple sources reporting US airstrikes on Iranian vessels near Oman, causing oil prices to surge past $100/barrel and Bitcoin to drop below $80K. This corroborates and escalates the Iran conflict narrative from the previous window. Separately, the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal (Trump-brokered) is confirmed by Benzinga, acting as a counter-signal that could dampen geopolitical risk premiums. The AI hardware narrative is rotating, with SMCI and INTC overtaking NVDA and MSFT in narrative leadership, suggesting a shift in market focus. BlackRock's plan to launch tokenized money-market funds on Ethereum is a positive signal for crypto adoption. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, supported by AI stocks, but sentiment breadth is decaying, indicating a 'permission without belief' regime. The Coinbase AWS outage is a minor negative for crypto platforms. The prevailing macro narrative is escalating on the Iran front, but the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire counters some geopolitical risk. The AAPL-INTC deal from the previous window remains a positive catalyst for tech, with no contradictory signals.