WS #6865

The dominant theme remains the escalating Iran-US conflict (ESCALATING), with multiple sources reporting a tenuous ceasefire appears to be holding after US strikes on Iranian oil tankers. However, a separate source calls the ceasefire 'fiction' and reports the biggest Gulf clashes since April 7, with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may require foreign firms to obtain permits for undersea internet cables in the Strait, affecting 15-20% of global data traffic. Prediction markets show active trading on Iran-related outcomes, including permanent peace deals and Strait of Hormuz blockade lifting. The ceasefire narrative is contradicted by reports of continued clashes, creating uncertainty for oil markets and energy stocks. Separately, the tech/AI theme continues to dominate US markets. Intel (INTC) hit a record high, leading the SPX +25%, with reports of a preliminary chip-making agreement with Apple. Semiconductor stocks (INTC, QCOM, AMD) are up double-digits, while other sectors are flat to down. Dan Ives says AI boom still early, tech stocks could climb another 15% this year. Lumentum (LTE) is set to replace CoStar (CSGP) on the Nasdaq-100. Earnings season remains strong with 88% of S&P 500 reporting firms topping EPS estimates. The tech rally is broadening, with MU and AMD each now more valuable than JNJ. In other developments, Hungary's Peter Magyar was sworn in as prime minister, ending Viktor Orban's 16-year rule, a significant European political shift. Bahrain dismantled an Iranian Revolutionary Guards spy network. A cruise ship hit by hantavirus outbreak is being evacuated by Western nations. Canada committed $2B to a Mexico pharmaceutical facility. These events are secondary to the dominant Iran and tech narratives.