WS #6895

The dominant theme remains the Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources confirm a severe Strait of Hormuz blockade: traffic has collapsed from 130+ vessels pre-war to just 7 on May 6, with the IMO Secretary General stating 'no safe transit anywhere.' The US and Israel are increasing military pressure, with Israel reportedly preparing to strike Iranian energy facilities if a ceasefire fails. This is corroborated by reports of Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killing 7, including a child, and aerial attacks from Lebanon intercepted over northern Israel. Oil prices remain elevated: Brent at $101.3, WTI at $95.42, Murban at $98.82. India's inflation is accelerating as high energy prices bite. A counter-signal exists: Putin claims the Ukraine conflict is nearing its end, and there are ongoing US-Iran diplomatic meetings, but no concrete de-escalation on the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Micron Technology (MU) extended its best weekly gain since 2008 (+38%), a high-significance positive for semiconductors. The Golders Green bank evacuation was a false alarm. Bobby Cox's death is notable but not market-moving. Overall, the narrative is one of escalating geopolitical tension with severe oil supply disruption, countered by diplomatic efforts that have not yet yielded results, while semiconductors provide a positive undercurrent.