WS #6971

The dominant signal in this window is the resignation of Latvia's Defence Minister Andris Sprūds after Ukrainian drones hit oil storage tanks in Latvia, confirmed by multiple sources including Reuters and independent analysts. This event underscores escalating drone warfare risks near NATO borders and potential energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. Separately, Iran-related tensions persist: Trump warned against Iran's nuclear access, Netanyahu called for force, and a SeekingAlpha article reports Iran's response to a US ceasefire proposal. Oil prices remain elevated (Brent ~$101, WTI ~$95), with Polymarket showing active trading on oil price targets ($100, $110) and US-Iran peace deals. India's Modi appealed for fuel conservation due to rising oil prices from the Iran war, highlighting second-order effects on import-dependent nations. The Latvian defence minister resignation is a new development, while the Iran situation is stable but unresolved. No counter-signals emerged to offset the prevailing geopolitical risk narrative.