WS #6985

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Iran formally rejecting the US peace proposal and demanding war reparations, removal of sanctions, unfreezing of assets, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources (Bluesky posts from various accounts, including Press TV and state media) corroborate this, confirming Trump's rejection of Iran's response as 'totally unacceptable.' This effectively closes any near-term diplomatic off-ramp, escalating the conflict narrative. The oil market is already pricing in supply disruption, with Polymarket showing bets on WTI hitting $105 in May. Separately, North Korea has amended its constitution to authorize a nuclear strike if the leader is killed, adding geopolitical risk. On the positive side, the DOJ is expected to drop its criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, removing a political overhang on the Fed. Google's $10B investment in Anthropic at a $350B valuation signals continued AI capex intensity. France is reportedly seeking to charge Elon Musk with complicity in child sexual abuse imagery, which could weigh on Tesla sentiment. The narrative arc for US-Iran is ESCALATING, while the DOJ probe dropping is a DE-ESCALATING counter-signal for Fed independence.