WS #7018

The US-Iran conflict narrative remains ESCALATING, with Trump rejecting Iran's peace proposal as 'totally unacceptable' and Tehran warning of new attacks. However, a counter-signal emerged: Iran's foreign ministry stated Tehran is 'serious' about peace talks, and Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 13 to potentially leverage a peace deal. This diplomatic opening could de-escalate tensions. Separately, Saudi Arabian oil exports to China are set for a deep plunge in June, and an India-bound fertilizer shipment was scrapped over Iran origin risk, tightening global supply. UK PM Starmer's political survival speech is ongoing, with gilt yields under pressure, but no new market-moving data beyond the pre-existing narrative. The Philippine House approved articles of impeachment against VP Sara Duterte, a political event with limited direct US market impact. A hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship is a health story with limited market impact. Bitcoin briefly topped $82,000 on improving macro conditions, but prediction market odds for new all-time highs in 2026 are softening.