WS #7020

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources corroborate that Trump rejected Iran's peace offer, with NYT reporting 'Trump Rejects Iran’s Offer' and a Bloomberg-linked post noting UK gilt yields rising on the impasse. Fitch Ratings has raised its 2026-2027 oil price assumptions due to a longer Strait of Hormuz closure, expecting Brent at $100-110/bbl through July. This is a significant escalation of the oil supply crisis. Separately, Norges Bank surprised markets with a 25bp rate hike to 4.25%, exceeding expectations. Barrick Gold reported a massive earnings beat (Q1 EPS $0.98 vs $0.69 est) and announced a $3B buyback, signaling strength in gold miners amid geopolitical turmoil. Alphabet's AI-driven growth narrative is gaining traction, with Benzinga suggesting it could overtake Nvidia as the world's largest company. Cameco halted Key Lake production after a bridge collapse, which could impact uranium supply. The UK political situation is STABLE for now, with Starmer's leadership speech ongoing but no new market-moving developments. The hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship is a health story with limited market impact. The Forza Horizon 6 leak is noise. The overall market sentiment is bearish for equities and bullish for oil, gold, and defense stocks.