WS #7067

The dominant narrative remains the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, with no genuine de-escalation signals in this window. Multiple sources (WSJ, Bluesky, Atlas News) confirm that the UAE has been conducting secret military strikes against Iran, including an attack on the Lavan Island refinery that knocked out capacity for months. This cross-corroborated report significantly escalates the conflict by implicating a key U.S. ally in direct attacks on Iran. The Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, and Polymarket data shows heavy trading on Iran-related outcomes (peace deal, Hormuz reopening, Kharg Island control). Trump's proposal to suspend the federal gasoline tax to offset surging fuel prices is a counter-signal that could provide temporary consumer relief but requires Congressional approval. UK political turmoil is intensifying, with senior Labour figures (Deputy PM Lammy, Foreign Secretary Cooper) urging PM Starmer to set a resignation timetable after heavy local election losses, which could create policy uncertainty. On the earnings front, several notable reports crossed: Microvast missed badly on both EPS and revenue; BuzzFeed missed Q1 estimates and announced a $120M investment from Byron Allen; Ovintiv beat estimates; 3D Systems beat estimates; Novanta beat estimates and raised guidance; CleanSpark missed estimates; MARA Holdings missed estimates; AST SpaceMobile dropped after a weak Q1 report. The macro picture is dominated by escalating Iran tensions and oil supply risk, while earnings season continues to produce mixed results.