WS #7088

The dominant theme remains the Iran crisis and its second-order effects on energy markets and supply chains. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that Strait of Hormuz disruption could cut 100M barrels weekly, potentially driving oil to $110/barrel. This is corroborated by Polymarket contracts on Strait of Hormuz blockade lifting and Kharg Island control, indicating sustained market focus. Separately, Nikkei Asia reports helium tank and solvent shortages from the Iran war are disrupting tech supply chains, threatening production and raising prices. This adds a tech-sector bearish angle to the macro picture. On the political front, Trump's China summit itinerary is set for May 13-15 in Beijing, with tariffs, AI, and trade on the table, which could provide a positive catalyst for US-China trade-sensitive stocks. The Iran crisis narrative is ESCALATING with no counter-signals. The tech supply chain disruption is a new development that could weigh on semiconductor and hardware stocks.