WS #7099

The UK political crisis is the dominant signal this window, with multiple sources corroborating that PM Starmer has told his cabinet he will not resign and wants to 'keep governing', while a first minister has resigned and Labour MPs demand he go. This represents an escalation from the prior window's narrative of cabinet support stabilizing. The Iran-US ceasefire continues to deteriorate: Bloomberg reports the bond market is ditching the 'Warsh trade' as oil surges, emerging-market currencies and stocks fell on ceasefire collapse fears, and Kuwait detained individuals claiming IRGC membership. Cross-source corroboration: Sky News reports UK borrowing costs hit decades-long high as pressure mounts on Starmer. In corporate news, eBay formally rejected GameStop's $56B takeover bid (multiple sources), Amazon launched 30-minute delivery nationwide (CNBC, multiple sources), and Venture Global beat estimates and signed LNG deals with TotalEnergies and Vitol. The ECB's Patsalides signaled a June rate hike, and Korea's benchmark bond yield topped 4% on rate-hike bets. The UK political crisis is ESCALATING, the Iran situation is STABLE-to-ESCALATING, and the 'Warsh trade' narrative is DE-ESCALATING as oil surge changes rate-cut expectations.