WS #7105

The dominant signal in this window is the release of the April US CPI report, showing inflation surging to 3.8% (highest since May 2023) and core CPI unexpectedly accelerating to 2.8% vs 2.7% forecast. This hot inflation data pours cold water on Fed rate cut hopes, with fed funds futures turning more hawkish. The inflation print is directly linked to the Iran war driving gasoline prices higher, as confirmed by multiple sources (Bloomberg, NBC, Seeking Alpha). Separately, the Iran conflict continues to escalate: Trump says ceasefire is 'on life support' after rejecting an 'unacceptable' proposal from Iran, the Strait of Hormuz closure has created a 1 billion barrel oil shortfall per ADNOC CEO, and the Pentagon reports the Iran war has cost $29 billion so far. A second Qatari LNG tanker appears to have exited the Strait, offering a slight de-escalation signal. In the UK, a third minister has resigned from Starmer's government, escalating the political crisis. On the corporate front, IREN priced an upsized $2.6B convertible notes offering, Alpha Compute closed a $32.2M AI GPU contract, and Agios submitted an sNDA for accelerated approval of mitapivat in sickle cell disease. Cerebras is going public this week in a $5.5B IPO, with OpenAI potentially getting a windfall. The prevailing macro narrative is inflation ESCALATING and Iran conflict ESCALATING, with the UK political crisis also ESCALATING.