WS #7109

The dominant macro narrative remains ESCALATING: the Iran conflict intensifies with Trump rejecting Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the Pentagon reports war costs rising to $29bn. April CPI came in at 3.8% (a three-year high), corroborated by Bloomberg and Fed's Goolsbee warning of overheating. Russia's Putin announced the Oreshnik missile system can carry nuclear warheads and the Sarmat ICBM will enter combat duty by end-2026, adding geopolitical risk. Oil prices surged (WTI +3.29% to $101.3, Brent +3.26% to $107.6) as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shuttered, with an Iraqi supertanker retreating from the US blockade. Brazil's oil exports to China doubled as global crude flows are rearranged. Russia's economy ministry revised down oil production and export forecasts for 2026-2029, tightening supply further. On the corporate side, eBay rejected GameStop's $56B takeover bid, a high-significance M&A signal. JPMorgan CEO Dimon warned of market exuberance amid global tensions. The UK political crisis deepens with the Victims Minister resigning from Starmer's government. No counter-signals are present to offset these bearish drivers. The prevailing macro narrative is ESCALATING: inflation is rising, the Iran conflict is intensifying with no diplomatic resolution, and Russia is signaling nuclear-capable missile deployments.