WS #7114
No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The dominant macro narrative remains ESCALATING: US inflation at 3.8%, Iran conflict intensifying, oil above $100. No counter-signals or de-escalation detected. TSMC's $20B capex increase and New Fortress Energy's $885M financing are ongoing positives but unchanged from prior window.
Key developments
- US inflation jumps to 3.8% in April, highest in three years, driven by energy costs from Iran war
- Iran expands control over Strait of Hormuz; traffic at 5% of normal; UAE minister says 1 bln barrel shortage
- Pentagon says Iran war cost $29 billion; defense stocks RTX, LMT to benefit from restocking
- Supply-chain stress heading higher again, reminiscent of COVID-era peaks
- UK Labour leadership crisis: 100+ MPs back Starmer, but 80+ call for resignation