WS #7176

The dominant signal in this window is the release of the IEA monthly oil report, which marks a dramatic reversal from surplus to deficit. The IEA now projects global oil supply will fall 1.78 million bpd below demand in 2026, versus a prior forecast of a 0.41 million bpd surplus. The total supply loss from the Strait of Hormuz closure since February is estimated at 12.8 million bpd, and global inventories were drawn down by a record 246 million barrels in March-April. This is a major bullish catalyst for oil prices and energy stocks, and bearish for consumer discretionary, airlines, and shipping. The report also noted Russian oil production fell 460,000 bpd YoY in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Separately, the US-China summit narrative continues to escalate: Trump has departed for Beijing, and China state media described the preliminary exchanges as 'candid, in-depth, constructive.' Jensen Huang joining the delegation is driving Chinese AI stocks higher on hopes of H200 chip supply. The UK political crisis is de-escalating slightly as Wes Streeting's brief meeting with Starmer suggests no immediate leadership challenge, but Labour's affiliated unions issued a joint statement saying Starmer will not lead into the next election. Samsung union pay talks failed, raising strike risk for chip production. Nissan forecast its first net profit in three years, a positive signal for the auto sector. The IEA report is the highest-signal item, cross-corroborated by multiple sources (IEA, Reuters, Bloomberg, multiple social media accounts).