WS #7181

The dominant narrative remains the escalating oil supply crisis, with the IEA lowering its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 418,000 bpd due to the Middle East conflict, partially offsetting supply-driven bullishness for energy stocks. The Strait of Hormuz closure continues to impact jet fuel and travel, with Tui reporting a 10% fall in UK summer holiday revenue and cutting seat capacity. EU Energy Commissioner stated no serious jet fuel supply issue in the very short term, providing a minor counter. In tech, Tencent and Alibaba missed sales expectations as AI monetization falls short, a negative for Chinese tech and AI sentiment. Anthropic is in talks to raise $30B at a $900B+ valuation, signaling continued AI investment. UK political turmoil intensifies: Health Minister Wes Streeting is reportedly preparing to resign, and Labour-backing unions call for Starmer to step down, with Polymarket showing elevated probability of Starmer out by May 31. Russian drone attacks killed nine in Ukraine after ceasefire expired, escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict. Charles Schwab begins U.S. rollout of spot crypto trading for retail clients, a bullish signal for crypto adoption. Bitcoin tests key resistance at $82,000-$82,500 (200-day moving averages). The overall narrative arc is ESCALATING geopolitical risk with mixed tech signals and UK political instability.