WS #7190

The dominant macro narrative remains the escalating oil supply crisis and US PPI surge, with no counter-signals or de-escalation observed. The US PPI YoY surged to 6% vs 4.8% forecast, and Core PPI to 5.2% vs 4.3%, confirming persistent inflation driven by energy costs. This reinforces the bearish macro thesis for equities and bonds. The Iran conflict continues to escalate: Iran proposed a service fee for Strait of Hormuz passage, Israeli airstrikes killed 12 in Lebanon, and a Chinese supertanker carrying Iraqi crude successfully transited the Strait after being stranded. Saudi oil production fell to 6.316M bpd (lowest since Gulf War), and the IEA revised its forecast to a widening oil deficit. Trump arrived in China for high-stakes talks with Xi, with Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang as a late addition to the delegation, which is a bullish signal for NVDA. The US House will debate a War Powers Act resolution to remove forces from Iran hostilities, a potential counter-signal. LinkedIn (MSFT) is preparing to lay off ~5% of staff, a bearish signal for MSFT. Anduril raised $5B at a $61B valuation, highlighting defense tech momentum. Anthropic now has more business customers than OpenAI per Ramp data, a positive for AI competition. Waymo expanded to Miami, supporting GOOGL. Wendy's shares climbed on reported Trian take-private interest. The dominant theme is ESCALATING on the oil/inflation/Iran front, with the Trump-Xi summit and potential War Powers Act vote as key events to watch.