WS #7199

The dominant narrative remains the Iran war-driven oil supply crisis and the Trump-Xi summit, both ongoing without material change. However, several new signals emerged in this window. Boston Fed's Collins delivered hawkish remarks, warning rates may need to stay restrictive 'for some time' and that a hike is possible if inflation persists, directly countering any dovish pivot hopes. Separately, the Senate is set to confirm Trump's pick Warsh as Fed Chair, a significant leadership change. On the geopolitical front, Trump arrived in China but Xi did not greet him at the airport, a diplomatic snub that may signal tensions. Russia launched a mass drone attack on Ukraine's critical infrastructure, escalating the conflict. The South Carolina Supreme Court overturned Alex Murdaugh's murder convictions, a non-market story. On the corporate side, Arm/SoftBank tried to buy Cerebras pre-IPO, and Foxconn confirmed a ransomware breach affecting Apple/Google/Nvidia supply chains. LinkedIn is cutting 5% of its workforce. Bitcoin remains pinned near $80k as hot PPI spikes rate hike fears. The IEA report highlighted a 10.1 mb/d supply drop due to Hormuz closure, reinforcing the oil crisis. Overall, the macro picture is bearish for equities due to hawkish Fed and escalating geopolitical risks, with energy stocks benefiting from the oil supply crunch.