WS #7206

The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran oil crisis, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources (Reuters, Bluesky, Alpaca) report that Saudi and Kuwaiti fighter jets struck Iran-backed militia targets in Iraq, and Iran's foreign minister accused Kuwait of unlawfully attacking an Iranian boat and detaining four citizens in the Persian Gulf. Separately, a UAE-owned tanker is leaking fuel off Oman following an Iranian strike. These developments directly threaten oil supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing the oil price spike scenario. The Senate again blocked a resolution to limit Trump's war powers, maintaining the status quo. No counter-signals such as diplomatic de-escalation or strategic reserve releases are present in this window. On the corporate front, Anduril completed a funding round at a $61 billion valuation, highlighting defense sector momentum. Fervo Energy IPO is indicating above its IPO price, suggesting strong demand for energy/IPOs. The CLARITY Act crypto legislation is one vote away in the Senate Banking Committee, which could be a significant catalyst for crypto markets. Fed's Collins favors keeping rates on hold for 'some time', reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate narrative. The PPI came in hot (1.4% MoM vs 0.5% expected), with wholesale inflation at 6% annually, the biggest since 2022, driven by energy costs. This supports the stagflationary thesis.