WS #7208

The Iran oil crisis continues to escalate, with multiple signals reinforcing supply disruption fears. Iran's parliament confirmed no nuclear negotiations with the US, while Israel's Netanyahu secretly visited the UAE during the war, marking a 'historic breakthrough' in relations. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve reported a record weekly drawdown of 8.6 million barrels, confirming active government intervention to manage energy market stress. OPEC production has fallen more than 30% since the start of the Iran conflict, exacerbating supply tightness. Meanwhile, Trump arrived in Beijing for a high-stakes summit with Xi, with trade and Iran on the agenda — a potential de-escalation signal for trade tensions but a wildcard for Iran talks. The Senate again rejected a resolution to limit Trump's war powers, maintaining the status quo. On the corporate front, Fervo Energy IPO opened at $36/share (33% above its $27 IPO price), signaling strong demand for energy/IPOs. Tower Semiconductor nearly doubled operating profit on AI tailwinds, with shares surging 15%. The CLARITY Act crypto legislation is one vote away in the Senate Banking Committee, which could be a significant catalyst for crypto markets. Fed's Collins favors keeping rates on hold for 'some time', reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate narrative. Hot CPI and PPI reports have ignited new inflation fears, supporting the stagflationary thesis. The dominant macro narrative remains the Iran oil crisis, which is ESCALATING. No counter-signals such as diplomatic de-escalation or strategic reserve releases are present in this window beyond the SPR drawdown itself.