WS #7215

The dominant narrative remains the Iran oil crisis, which is STABLE but with new cross-source corroboration: EIA data shows Strait of Hormuz flows fell by nearly 6 million bpd in Q1, and the Iranian military maintains high alert with ceasefire uncertain. A key counter-signal emerged: the Senate Iran War Powers Resolution was blocked 49-50, with Fetterman the sole Democrat opposing, indicating no near-term legislative check on the administration's Iran policy. This dampens hopes for de-escalation. Separately, a bearish MAG7 carve-out: Culper Research issued a short report on NVIDIA (NVDA), creating a high-significance contradiction to the prevailing tech rally narrative. Also, JP Morgan launched a second tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, signaling institutional crypto adoption. Trump's China summit is ongoing with traders predicting tariff truce extension and Boeing aircraft purchases, which could boost BA and dampen trade war fears. The White House plans ~250 pardons for the 250th anniversary, a non-market story. VP Vance announced deferral of $1.3B in Medicaid funding to California, a political story with limited direct market impact. Bitcoin slipped below $80,000, but technical analysis suggests structural bullishness. Overall, the Iran crisis narrative is stable with no de-escalation, while the NVDA short report introduces a significant stock-specific bearish signal.