WS #7249

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a major Russian attack on Kyiv involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, reported by multiple sources (Kyiv mayor, OSINT accounts). This is corroborated by Ukrainian deep-strike claims against Russian oil facilities. Separately, the US Senate rejected a resolution to end the conflict with Iran, and Israel approved a $700M plan to counter Hezbollah drones, indicating sustained Middle East tensions. On the macro front, the IEA warned that Hormuz flows will take weeks to normalize, keeping oil markets undersupplied until October with Brent above $107. The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, a known hawkish figure. The UK Labour leadership challenge (Streeting vs. Starmer) is escalating but has limited direct US market impact. Cerebras IPO pricing to raise $5.5B at $40B valuation is a positive signal for AI stocks. The prevailing themes are ESCALATING (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) and STABLE (Fed, oil supply crisis).