WS #7252

The dominant signal in this window is the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which has now moved from arrival to the formal welcome ceremony and bilateral talks. Multiple sources (Reuters, Nikkei, Chinese state media, and Bluesky breaking news accounts) corroborate that Trump's motorcade arrived at the Great Hall of the People, Xi held a welcome ceremony, and the two leaders are now meeting. This represents an escalation from the prior window's 'positive market reaction but no deal yet' — the summit is now actively underway with face-to-face talks. No concrete deal has been announced, but the presence of top US CEOs (Musk, Cook, Huang) and the positive tone of the welcome ceremony suggest a constructive atmosphere. Separately, a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv overnight (residential building hit, at least four injured) adds geopolitical noise but is unlikely to shift the dominant trade narrative. The oil supply crisis remains stable with no new data in this window. Japan is considering an extra budget (Kyodo), which could signal fiscal stimulus to counter oil-driven economic headwinds. TSMC's forecast that the global chip market will hit $1.5 trillion by 2030 on AI growth is a bullish signal for semiconductors, but is a reiteration of a known theme. The META CAPEX comment (all increase is inflation, not incremental compute) is a bearish signal for AI infrastructure spending but is a single analyst observation, not a company statement. Overall, the Trump-Xi summit is the key market-moving event, with the narrative arc shifting from 'anticipation' to 'active engagement'.