WS #7265

The dominant signal in this window is the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, which has produced several concrete outcomes: both sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon, and discussed expanding market access for US businesses and increasing Chinese purchases of American agricultural products. The White House readout did not mention Taiwan, which is a notable omission given Xi's earlier warning of 'clashes' if the issue is mishandled. Separately, the UK economy grew 0.3% in March, beating expectations of a contraction, but this is likely front-loading ahead of Iran war impacts. The UK political crisis continues to escalate, with allies of Labour rivals signaling readiness to challenge Starmer. On the geopolitical front, Hezbollah drone strikes injured civilians in Israel, and Israel struck targets in Lebanon, while the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to disrupt oil markets. The IATA head warned that jet fuel shortages will drive up air fares this summer. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed Trump asked him to join the China trip, and the US cleared H200 AI chip sales to Alibaba and Tencent, but Beijing halted deliveries. Foxconn expects Q2 to beat the slow season thanks to AI demand. The narrative arc for the Trump-Xi summit is ESCALATING (concrete agreements emerging), for the UK political crisis it is ESCALATING (leadership challenge imminent), and for the Strait of Hormuz crisis it is STABLE (continued disruption but diplomatic progress).