WS #7268

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis, with multiple sources corroborating that a UK naval group reported a commercial vessel was taken by unauthorized personnel and is now bound for Iranian waters. This follows the earlier vessel seizure near Fujairah, marking a clear escalation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Iran's main loading facility has had no loadings for the past three days and that storage is full, indicating a severe disruption to Iranian oil exports. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi summit continues with positive rhetoric: Xi stated that China and the US should become partners, not rivals, and that rejuvenation of China and 'Make America Great Again' can go hand in hand. Bessent confirmed that both sides can designate $30 billion for goods in non-critical areas, that soybeans are taken care of, and that large Boeing orders are expected. A White House official said Trump and Xi agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, and China opposed its militarization. On the economic front, China's credit expansion slowed far more than expected in April, with new loans shrinking, reinforcing the bearish China narrative. India's producer prices surged to a 3.5-year high due to elevated energy prices. Separately, the UK's CMA investigation must be completed within 9 months, and the Bank of England is set to ease sterling stablecoin rules. The narrative arc for the Strait of Hormuz crisis is ESCALATING, for the Trump-Xi summit it is STABLE with positive trade signals, and for China's economy it is BEARISH.