WS #7375
The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, with Trump claiming 'fantastic trade deals' and Reuters reporting the same. This is a bullish development for US-China trade relations and supports risk assets. Separately, the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to escalate: Ukrainian drone strikes killed three in Russia's Ryazan, and over 40 drones were destroyed in Taganrog and Rostov. This escalation is bearish for risk assets and bullish for energy. Iran's parliament speaker warned that US actions in Hormuz could trigger a global financial crisis, adding to geopolitical risk. Brent crude hit a 4-year high amid US-Iran tensions. Treasuries lead global bond yields higher on inflation angst. Alphabet sold $3.6 billion in yen bonds, the largest such issue by a foreign company. Toyota plans a $2 billion Texas assembly plant, bullish for US manufacturing. The prevailing macro narrative is ESCALATING on Ukraine-Russia and STABLE on US-Iran tensions, with the Trump-Xi summit providing a partial counterweight via trade deal optimism.
Key developments
- Trump claims 'fantastic trade deals' with China at Beijing summit
- Ukrainian drone strikes kill three in Russia's Ryazan, over 40 drones destroyed in Taganrog
- Brent crude hits 4-year high as Iran warns of global financial crisis from Hormuz actions
- Treasuries lead global bond yields higher on inflation angst
- Alphabet sells $3.6 billion yen bonds, largest foreign company issue
- Toyota plans $2 billion Texas assembly plant