WS #7379

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with multiple sources reporting a Ukrainian drone attack on the Ryazan oil refinery causing casualties and a massive combined strike on Kyiv. This supports oil prices and is bearish for risk assets. Separately, the Trump-Xi summit is concluding with limited deals, but Trade Rep. Greer eyes a multi-billion dollar China farm deal, providing a modest positive for agricultural commodities. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping oil elevated. US Treasury yields are rising (10-year at 4.53%, highest since May 2025; 2-year at 4.065%, highest since March 2025), driven by oil and inflation fears. Emerging market stocks tumbled. India raised fuel prices for the first time in four years due to Iran war impact. Crypto markets saw a surge in XRP and DOGE (+5%) as the Clarity Act cleared a Senate banking panel, a bullish signal for crypto. Amazon announced another round of layoffs in its selling partner services division. The prevailing macro narrative is ESCALATING on Ukraine-Russia, STABLE on the Trump-Xi summit with a slight positive tilt from the farm deal, and STABLE on US-Iran tensions with the Strait closure persisting.