WS #7402

The dominant narrative remains the Strait of Hormuz closure and its inflationary shock, with oil prices resuming their upward march. The US Industrial Production MoM came in at 0.7% vs 0.3% forecast, reinforcing the 'higher-for-longer' rates thesis. Bitcoin dipped below $79,000 as inflation fears hit risk assets. The Conference Board sees prolonged inflation and the Fed holding steady. On the geopolitical front, China's Wang Yi called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and confirmed US-China agreement to set up trade boards, but no concrete de-escalation on the Strait. Iran's Araghchi expressed doubt about US seriousness in talks. A major dark pool order of $468.16M in META and a $274.71M dark pool in QQQ suggest institutional positioning for a bounce, but the macro headwinds remain dominant. Bill Ackman disclosed a new stake in Microsoft, calling it 'compellingly cheap', providing a MAG7-specific bullish signal. The energy crisis continues to escalate with no counter-signal. Chip stocks fell after a Trump-Xi meeting brought no deals, with NVDA, AMD, INTC dropping as hopes for China sales cooled. Ukrainian drones hit a Rosneft refinery, adding to supply concerns. The energy crisis narrative is ESCALATING.